Early Morning Thoughts on Invest 92 L..Aug 26th

The two images above one was created on the 24th , the other was just created about an hour ago now on the 26th. I tried to duplicate the exact same cone but did not work without the lat-longitude. Thank you to carlos for the image  

Thoughts as of early this morning on the 26th...

First I think its important that we have quite the model consistency from the UKMET/GGEM/ECM/NOGAPS/18ZDGEX which i normally would not reference but the HPC referenced them today! Came off as quite a shock...

I have always all along felt that the westward inland track over land was a little too far west as you can tell by the above images. The track at this point and time i expect to verify is very close to Hurricane Belle that i posted two days ago. That would be the analog that i would use.
The area is becoming influenced less by shear which is always a good sign for a system to strengthen. As Invest 92 continues to the WNW the shear should become minimal and I expect to see a Tropical Cyclone develop within the next 12-24 hours.
As INVEST 92 L (soon to be DANNY) makes his way slowly up the eastern seaboard..a deep trough will be dropping down into the Great lakes region . This will cause heights to rise along the atlantic coastal waters which will then help to steer INVEST 92 L up the eastern seaboard. INVEST 92 L will not be able to make an escape out to sea due to the blocking high pressures in the Northern Atlantic. 
Now a potential fly in the ointment will be the timing of this trough..If it is too progressive this is going to help INVEST 92 to head off more to the NE and out to sea. If the trough is slower it will pretty much have the effect listed above this paragraph. 
As far as intensity.. I do not believe that global models should be used for the intensity of Tropical cyclones, and unfortunately the Hurricane models are not quite where they should be because there is no C.O.C develop yet. 
The reason this storm will take a closer path to the East coast then HURRICANE BILL did is due to the stronger ridge leaving less room to squiggle and an upper level low over the SE that will help to keep INVEST 92 closer to the coast. 
Intensity wise I am not 100% confident on but early preliminary thinking is a strong Tropical Storm or a Moderate Category 1. Once this tropical wave makes it over the GULF stream I think it will go into RI and it has some very warm waters to its north along its way.
I also think its possible that INVEST 92 may go from a INVEST to a TROPICAL STORM ..if those winds that were found by recon remain in place once the C.O.C develops. 
This has the potential to bring alot of rain and flooding as well as more beach erosion..

Stay tuned for further updates. Next update tomorrow after 12 Z