Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Severe Possiblities For Aug 5th 2009


CAPE VALUES 1000-2000
LI -2 to -4
I am not too impressed with severe chances tomorrow. The cold front will be dropping across the region, into a warm and humid air mass. Dewpoints will be quite high again across the region in the 65-70 range and temperatures will generally be between 80-90...
The problem is that shear is not the greatest across the region. The highest shear is actually to the north and that is around 30 Knots. Very poor lapse rates as well..

The only thing that really stands out is precipitable water content around 1.5- 2.0. So, while i believe severe weather will be possible, isolated... mainly winds and hail..I think the greatest threat will be heavy rainfall. Flood watches and or warnings may be needed once again.

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