There really has not been an east trend on any of the models at all in the last 24 hours. I believe that NHC is relying more on the hurricane models then they are the global models. However, with Danny being a hybrid system ..the hurricane models are not the best to use in my opinion. If one were to look at the global models they all take this over eastern LI and into the Cape area. Some are slightly west of the CAPE like tonights RGEM for example. They keep shifting the track to the east because of the dynamical models.
Now, when looking at the steering currents, they argue for a more Northerly direction then easterly direction. If one were to look at the coordinates that have been given over the last couple updates the northerly motion is greater then the easterly motion. I see no reason for this to change.
Now, looking at the upper air data..I see over the great lakes a neutral tilted trough..however where Danny is we have a negatively tilted trough. A semi 50/50 low..Ridging across the atlantic that Danny should continue to move up the western side of. A negatively tilted trough should help danny to ride basically parallel to the coast. I think when the 2 AM update comes out that Danny will still be either maintaining his strength or perhaps intensified some. Now, NHC has DANNY moving NNE for the next 24 hours from 11 PM tonight..so essentially that takes us to 11 PM Saturday evening (Sunday 0300) with an increase in forward speed. With Danny gaining more latitude North then longitude to the east..I feel no reason to change my forecast track.
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