While invest 94 L remains disorganized..the one thing that I do notice in the picture above is the size of this system. Erika is of course flanked with 20-30 knots of shear on her northwest side. This shear is important as this shear is preventing invest 94 L from developing further at this point and time. There is another reason that this is important and that is that the shear keeps this a weaker system. The shear and steering currents are above..
Now..we have seen with Danny what shear can do to a tropical wave. We seen that shear keep danny a weaker system and that allowed danny to be steered by the lower level steering currents. Danny started off further to the south then Bill...however INVEST 94 L is even more south then what Danny was. Current coordinates as of 2 Am were 13.8 N and 51.5 west. All this above is important as you read on and as i will explain.
The coordinates take me to the models. First lets talk about the GFS. Just yesterdays 00z run (8/30) this was showing invest 94 L splitting off into two pieces. Furthermore it was showing invest 94 L taking approximately 48 hours to get to the point where invest 48 is currently sitting in just a mere 24 hours. I mentioned last night how the 00z GFS was wrong and , indeed it was wrong. The GFDL does not develop invest 94 L. There are two reasons that i can think of pertaining to the model as to why this is the case. Reason #1 is there is not yet a closed defined circulation center. This means that this model will not have a correct handle on the scenario. Reason #2 is because it is run off the GFS dynamics. So that already puts a red flag up when it comes to this model. However..the same thing can be applied to the HWRF...no closed circulation center..not going to have a correct handle on the invest.
The GGEM 00z is notoriously known for developing tropical cyclones to soon. Even though they have attempted to fix this model..its pretty obvious that this is still occurring. So the GGEM develops invest 94 L and because of its development starts to recurve to the NE around 144 hours.
Now this brings me to the ECM. The ECM is essentially the superior model. However, even the ECM with being the superior model tends to not handle weaker tropical cyclones very well. If the system is stronger and the ECM shows it coming up the east coast..you can pretty much take it to the bank that its going to verify. So the 12 Z ECM essentially took this system into the Carribean..and essentially the carribean and dry air and shear caused the invest to dissipate. However..the one thing that the ECM is good at is pattern developing and the ensembles of the ECM have been consistently developing a huge ridge over the atlantic ocean into the eastern seaboard...
So whats going to happen with INVEST 94 L? Basically because invest 94 L is a weak system she should continue to head off to the WNW at around 15 mph caught up in that lower level steering flow. Invest 94 L should make it quite close to the islands before starting to turn to the NW..just barely making it to the north of the islands without actually landfalling there. And this NW movement should continue do the weakness in the ridge.
This should be about 48-60 hours from now. However, once invest 94 L gets north of the islands, the ecm ensembles show the ridge pressing back to the west over top of Invest 94 L..So at or around 72-96 hrs invest 94 L should start to move back to either west northwest or take a westerly track. So at this point and time..I think anywhere from Florida to the Southeast coast should be monitoring invest 94 L.
I am not going to cover intensity on this particular update as there is alot of shear and dry air that has to be contended with as invest 94 L heads west towards the islands. This brings me to my second scenario..the second scenario was last nights third scenario and that is there is a possibility that invest 94 L does not develop any further. If that is the case then invest 94 L will continue to be subjected to the lower level steering winds and head into the Carribean. With the amount of dry air in place there and sinking air chances are that invest 94 L would indeed dissipate. However, even if she becomes a carribean cruiser and finds a way to survive those conditions then along the GOM would have to become on guard for any potential impacts.
Stay tuned for the next update...
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