Invest 92 Thoughts as of August 24,2009

Hurricane Bill is out of the picture but not before producing the worst flooding since 1985 in Long Island and not before taking the lives of two individuals in the state of Maine. R.W.S forecasters warned in advance that this hurricane had the potential to produce dangerous rip currents and flooding from those rip currents as well as the Pre that was setting up! Also R.W.S forecasted Bill to travel within 100-200 miles off the coast of CAPE COD and that is exactly what happened.

Now R.W.S forecasters turn there attention to the next wave around 17 N and 58 W.  This wave is currently under going shear between 20-30 knots on its southern side and even higher shear in the north. Development of this system will be slow to occur. INVEST 92 L should continue to move to the WNW for the next several days as it rounds the base of a subtropical ridge with the  high pressure center just to the SE of bermuda.  In about 72 hours the ridge will weaken somewhat and this will allow INVEST 92 L to start to turn to the NW. INVEST 92 L should become a depression in the next 24-48 hrs.

What makes this different from Hurricane Bill? After all, Bill did the same thing with riding along the base of the subtropical ridge? The difference this time around will be the more southern latitude of the system before it starts to turn to the NW. Subtropical ridge will be stronger which will allow less wiggle room for INVEST 92 L to work with. 

As INVEST 92 L makes his way slowly up the eastern seaboard..a deep trough will be dropping down into the Great lakes region . This will cause heights to rise along the atlantic coastal waters which will then help to steer INVEST 92 L up the eastern seaboard. INVEST 92 L will not be able to make an escape out to sea due to the blocking high pressures in the Northern Atlantic.

At this point and time R.W.S forecasters will not be forecasting intensity as its too early in the forecasting period to get a proper handle on that scenario..However, the potential is there to be a threat to the east coast. If this develops into a Depression as noted above.. I will then become very confident on the outcome above. This is an early preliminary look at current thinking on INVEST 92 and the development into a tropical cyclone. 

Analog used is Hurricane Belle in 1976. Upper air pattern was quite similar with a deep trough with its axis near the great lakes and a strong subtropical ridge. 

Stay tuned for further updates to see if the potential becomes reality.