A warm front will be moving across the region overnight tonight and into the day tomorrow, Meanwhile, a cold front will be approaching the region from the west. A S/W will be moving across the Northern Regions while at the same time a S/W will be moving NE from the SW...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will break out in advance of the cold front.
Right now..severe Parameters are not all that impressive. However..one thing to keep an eye on will be the timing of the S/Ws involved. If the S/W to the north slows down..then this would allow the S/W to the south to approach the region in a more favorable manner. As it stands right now..the southern S/W appears that it may be a little too late.
Currently we are looking at CAPE VALUES of 1000-2000 across the region..
LI Index is -2 to -6 depending on the location..
Lapse Rates 5.5-6.0
Shear 35-45 Knots
Temperatures 80-90 degrees..
Precipitable Water content 1.5-2.0
Triggers
Warm front advancing from the south to the north bringing warm and humid air into the region
Cold front advancing from the west
Mean trough situated over the Great Lakes rotating impulses around and thru the region
Mainly am expecting the severe weather to be more isolated then widespread. However..if the timing of the S/Ws changes then this would allow more daytime heating to occur and also stronger parameters to occur as well.. So this might be a little bit of a nowcasting scenario.
For now my current thinking is below
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