Aug 20th Update On Hurricane Bill

I think this is a good time to put my latest thoughts out there. A few things I am looking at is the size of hurricane bill. This is a water vapor loop of him above.

Latest guidance tonight has basically remained status quo thru 00z runs. The GFS over three of its last runs since 06 Z run yesterday, has essentially the way it seems locked onto a track. The GGEM which has been consistent has not changed its course. ECM, is a little more difficult cause you can not see the in between hours but it looks like it would be slightly west . The NOGAPS, which ironically has been leading the way, has remained steady as a ship. The models thru out the day trended slightly west until 00z. This is pretty much a non debatable issue as NHC has stated this in there forecast advisories.
Movement? Which way is Bill moving and which way will he continue to move? This is my next focus area.
NHC coordinates for wednesday the 19th of Aug


03 GMT 08/19/09 17.2N 53.4W 125 952 Category 3 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/19/09 18.0N 54.9W 135 948 Category 4 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/19/09 18.7N 56.3W 135 950 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/19/09 19.8N 57.6W 135 947 Category 4 Hurricane
If my calculations are correct ..Hurricane Bill has moved 1.16 degrees to the North and 4.2 degrees to the west. I have to agree with Jordan when he says that NHC has jumped the gun on movement because that clearly shows more of a west movement with a northerly component then the opposite.
Now if you look at the steering currents that would be the next level for Bill..you can see what is actually happening..
The ridge is actually backbuilding on top of him. You can also see this a little bit in the current steering currents for 0300 Z. These steering currents and the back building of the ridge on top of him I believe are responsible for the more westerly component lasting longer as it has so far.
Each run of the guidance seems to be suggesting that the troughing is slowing down..its not progressing to the east as quick as was being modeled originally. Instead, the trough is taking on a neutral tilt and wanting ti split off..allowing the cold front to possibly have some interaction on Hurricane Bill.

So where are we going? I think Hurricane Bill will continue on his WNW track and will start to gradually turn to a more clear NW direction by about 70 W. I believe from there he will continue to move on a NNW direction and travel up along the eastern seaboard. At this point and time I do not want to forecast a track by how many miles off the coast. Now for the recurve..I am thinking Bill will start to recurve around 38 N and then proceed to the NE from there.

Keeping in mind the size of Hurricane Bill...and his swath of winds.. above.

We potentially could be looking at tropical storm force winds...across extreme southern New England up into extreme eastern Maine.