Update on the tropics for Sunday August 16th..

Still alot going on in the tropics today. So let me get right to it.  First stop on the agenda is to the west of Florida and that is Tropical Storm Claudette. Latest coordinates put this cyclone at 29.5 N & 85.6 W. Current animated satellite appears to be showing Claudette starting to move somewhat more towards the west north west, instead of just NW. This could be important as this would keep it over the open waters longer and possibly give it a chance to strengthen. It currently appears to be in the process of reorganizing. If neccessary will have an update on this later tonight. I still think that there is a possibility of this cyclone, if the west movement becomes realized, of tracking more towards Mississippi/Louisianna. If however, Claudette is not reorganizing with a center further to the south and east then landfall will be tonight in the late night hours in the Florida Panhandle.

Moving further south and east into the Atlantic, we come to what is left of ANA. As mentioned yesterday, I pretty much felt that ANA was heading for dissipation as most of the models were in agreement on that scenario. As you can see from looking at the animated satellite on ANA ..she has degenerated into a Tropical Depression and is looking pretty much scattered and ragged. In my current thinking she should just continue to dissipate and become a tropical wave. Her latest coordinates were 15.1 N and 58.8 West. This should be the last update on ANA that you will see under the tropical update from R.W.S.

Next stop is still further east and south into the Atlantic ocean and that brings us to Tropical Storm Bill, soon to be Hurricane Bill. Bills latest coordinates as of 5 PM from NHC was 12.8 N and 40.0 W. Now this is significant in my opinion. Models such as the ECM did not have Bill reaching 40 W until 8 PM tonight. This indicates that Bill is moving faster then what is currently being modeled by the most superior model-the ECM. 

So what we have currently going on is Tropical Bill strengthening, and Tropical Storm Bill continuing to move off the the west northwest. This general motion is expected to continue at least for the next few days as it is to the south of a high pressure ridge.

Now..models, such as the GFS, ECM, have a weakness developing in this ridge due to a trough of low pressure moving off the coast of new jersey and the upper level low going to the north of Bill..which would create a weakness in the ridge and cause Bill to start turning more towards the NW.

However, the question becomes is this mini trough going to be enough to create a weakness in the ridge and strong enough to cause a pull to the NW on Bill? At this point and time,I believe that Bill will bypass this mini trough and continue on a WNW track..

What happens after this is highly dependant on a trough that is forecasted to move along the northern tier of the states and progress its way into the great lakes and northeast. The timing of this trough is ultra important to the destination of Bill. The timing of this trough is ultra important as to whether Bill remains in the open atlantic harmlessly effecting noone or if it actually ends up closer to the east coast.

Now..what we know at this point and time is that there is going to be a strong ridge to the north of Bill. We also know that there is expected to be a trough coming into scenario. What we do not know is whether or not this trough is going to be fast enough to effect Bill or if Bill could be fast enough to out race the trough approaching east.

The fact that Bill is progressing to the west northwest faster then what the ECM has modeled..could indicate that Bill could get closer to the east coast then what the models currently indicate. Also, one has to take into consideration the intensification process of how strong Bill becomes and whether or not he can more or less create his own environment. This is not out of the question at the moment. Bill appears to be intensifying quite nicely and his speed seems to be faster then modeled.

So at this point, despite what the global models are saying..it would not be safe for anyone along the east coast to dismiss soon to be hurricane Bill. 

Hurricane IKE was forecasted several days straight to recurve and the final result was Galveston Texas.

Also another thing to consider is Gloria and how there origin of latitude was essentially in the same location and how there tracks are very similar. 

Thats all for tonight as I think there is pretty much to ponder over!