I am beginning to get more comfortable of the idea of not only the 2-4 day hot spell coming up in the Sunday to wednesday time period..but also more comfortable with the ideal of the heat persisting for some time across the region. By the region, I am referring to the mid atlantic and NE..
First the 8-10 day mean from the 12 Z runs.
As you can see the ECM which is consistent keeps the warmer anomalies over the northern tier into NNE..I am going to tend to lean more upon the ECM at this point as it makes more sense teleconnection wise across the forecast region.
Lets look at the EPO..
EPO is neutral and is expected to stay neutral to slightly positive thru the period..
NAO is neutral and expected to stay neutral to slightly positive by the end of the period..
PNA which is positive now, because of the trough currently moving thru the region is expected to go negative to neutral...
So essentially this spells out a warmer pattern across the area. Temperatures after the 2-4 day hot spell will probably relax some..however I expect to continue to see slightly above normal temperatures thru majority of the region thru at least the next two weeks.
Sunday will be the starting time of when the hot spell will begin. so currently this discussion above would cover the 9th thru the 22nd time period..
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