Invest 90 Current Thoughts

Two tracks that I am thinking at this current time and at the moment I am liking a track towards Florida. As i was discussing with Carlos earlier, the track of this storm is going to depend on two things. First will be the high pressure that is off the SE Coast. How long does it stay in position? It appears to stay in position at least thru the next 180 hours. If this is the case then the steering currents should continue to steer invest 90 off to the west with a jog south as well. The way the currents are set up now would actually take this pretty close to Florida. Now, of course the steering currents will fluctuate..however...as stated the slower this develops, the better chance of it staying south. Either way, with the high pressure off the SE coast and its influence ..invest 90 should generally stay to the south of that high pressure . Now, heres where a bit of a theory that I was processing comes in. If that high pressure stays essentially located where it is...and the general speed of invest90 stays approximately 12-15 miles per hour west..then before that high pressure dissipates or moves off...Invest 90 would have covered approximately 2250 miles...of the approx 3700 miles it would have to travel to get to Florida...Now the second part that this invest 90 is going to depend upon for actual outcome and track is the trough that will be moving along the Northern Tier. Does this trough come in strong and if so at this point cause Invest 90 to move more to the NW....or does the trough come in more flat and never take hold and lift more into SE CANADA? I believe it comes in strong enough to influence a pull to the NW but not strong enough to recurve it out to sea.When looking at teleconnections, the EPO does indeed go negative..however the PNA/NAO essentially stay neutral. This tells me that while the trough approaches from the west..its influence should start to pull invest 90 (whether TS,Hurricane etc) off to the NW...but with the trough not able to anchor in and take hold ..it should take it somewhere close to florida.Now..if the EPO were to become strongly negative and allow a much deeper trough into the Northeast this would give a better chance for invest90 to recurve and either come more up the coast..or out to sea as the ECM shows..The other fly in the ointment is does a SE Ridge bermuda high pressure become anchored? If this would occur..I believe that then the track more into the GOM would occur. I do not currently see, due to the teleconnections in place..this curving and coming up the coast because I do not think that the trough will be as strong as what is being modeled on the ECM.. The fact that the ECM has come SW of its 00z position is good cause to believe that its trending towards the other models. Also the GFDL has come further South as well....So right now i think the areas to watch are the GOM to Florida...