Aug 20th Afternoon Update on Hurricane Bill

There is an ULL out in front of BILL off to his WNW... from watching satellite loops & using the NHC coordinates, Hurricane Bill has yet to make a true complete turn to the NW....he appears to be still heading WNW...

Look at the steering levels that are up above. To see what is happening i believe its prudent to look at some other levels.. 

This is showing the ridge back building on top of Hurricane Bill. The above image is from 1 hour ago. 

You can see that it is still building on top of Bill. I believe this is what is being responsible for Bill still travelling on a WNW basis. However, I believe its only partially responsible. I also feel that the ULL that is WNW of Bill is also having a "pulling or tugging" effect on Bill.
We know that Bill was a Hurricane 4 and has since weakened to a category 3. We also know that he has been encountering shear and that is the cause of the weakness. So in my opinion that makes Bill more acceptable to his surroundings. 
I am somewhat concerned about this ULL and how far WNW it will keep tugging on Bill in combination with the ridge building on top of him. In the back of my mind I am still thinking about Anna and how Anna basically went thru the same current scenario and kept on the WNW pathway..however weakened.
Hurricane Bill is stronger and is at a higher latitude then ANNA obviously but has also started more south of ANNA. ANNA made it to about 68 west on that WNW basis and now it appears as if BILL has a good shot at making it beyond 68 W...
The question in my mind that is not answered is ..how confident are we that the models are picking up on everything correctly? 
I mean, the models now 72-78 hrs out are basically still shifting in the words of NHC "slightly west" .This causes them to shift there track accordingly the same way. Each update that has been essentially happening. So if they are not confident and if they keep delaying this true NW and then N direction..there is no way for me to be confident at this point with seeing everything I am seeing occurring. 
So with that in mind ...I have created a preliminary map. That preliminary map is going to have two tracks. The first track with the yellow centered line is the track that BILL would take if he keeps moving in the direction that he is. Remember i am not sold on this NOT happening in light of all the above. The second track is based on getting to around 70 W and 38 N before any turn to the North can occur..