Danny has been moving on a westerly to northwesterly direction and has seemed to slow down his forward momentum. It almost appears as if Danny is stalling. Danny has not become very well organized overnight and I have been talking about a weaker DANNY ultimately would allow a further to the west direction in movement. The slowing down to also potentially stalling also will ultimately have an effect on timing issues. NHC and most of the current guidance has this around CAPE COD about 48 hours from now. At this point and time I do not see that happening unless a fire is sparked underneath Danny to start accelerating him.
As you can see above the COC is exposed and DANNY has virtually stalled. Looking at the latest guidance from the global models to the dynamical models they have either stayed the same, as in the GGEM,ECM,RGEM or they have come further to the west..such as the GFS,NAM,HWRF,GFDL,NOGAPS,UKMET. This is not really all surprising because the COC is further to the west then anticipated by majority of the guidance yesterday.
Currently DANNYS C.O.C is in approximately 5-10 knots of shear when looking at the latest image. Also Danny is sitting over some pretty warm waters, as i posted these images in the last update. Being a weaker storm at this present time, makes Danny more subject to the LL steering currents.
This is currently allowing Danny to obtain his very slow drift of West Northwest and what also appears to at times be a SW wobble. All this is important as DANNY is still a weak system.
I also think that the models still do not have a proper handling on this system from the Global models to the Hurricane models. This is due to the fact that the system is so disorganized. However, one thing is becoming more and more clear..If the current direction of movement does not take place this will make the Southeast more succeptible to a landfall from DANNY.
The reason why the GFS has shifted west. Blocking and ridging is stronger on the GFS. Also the interaction with the ULL across the Great Lakes. Showing a Hybrid storm (see above images)
The stronger the ULL is and the deeper the trough is the more pull that is going to be emphasized onto Danny. The stronger the ridge and the stronger the blocking the less chance for Danny to move in a track akin to Hurricane Bill.
Now where is Danny going? That is the important question at this time. It appears as if Danny is stalling at this present time. However..when looking at the satellite and one looks to the west over the SE, one sees an ULL in that vicinity. The due motion with that is due North. So at some point and time over the next 12-24 hours Danny should begin to move off to the North. Now movement of DANNY is critical as to whether or not DANNY is developing a new C.O.C. There has been talks about this occurring for at least the last 12 hours but yet it has not occurred..instead we have a broad area of circulation. If the C.O.C relocates further to the east then the eastern track taking it 100-200 miles off the coast and very close to CAPE COD will end up verifying.However, if the C.O.C stays where it currently is located..or continues to drift westwards then the southeast is more in danger..particulary around CAPE HATTERAS once DANNY starts to move northwards. At this point and time I am leaning more towards the CAPE HATTERAS scenario and the C.O.C not relocating further to the east. IF this occurs then, from HATTERAS, TROPICAL STORM DANNY will continue to move north paralleling the eastern seaboard and then SNE will have to be on the lookout for potential impact.
Intensity? Intensity has been hard to forecast with DANNY. Despite not having its act together DANNY has been since yesterday slightly intensifying. 50 MPH winds to 60 MPH winds. I think its possible that DANNY could weaken slightly over the next couple hours because of stalling. However..once Danny starts to move towards the North intensification due to warm waters, light shear should occur. So my best guess at intensification should start tomorrow morning and have about 24 hours to 36 hours to intensify. Still leaning on this being a hybrid system which means it should continue to intensify further north..if not intensify at least maintain its status..due to becoming a hybrid system. Current thinking is a strong tropical storm to a CAT 1 hurricane...
So with all the above in mind..I have made absolutely no changes to my track...
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