August 26th Tropical Storm Danny Early Evening Thoughts!

Updated Early evening thoughts on Tropical Storm Danny. Danny has made the upgrade from INVEST 92 L to tropical storm. Since that time Danny has been struggling to get organized. C.O.C was located at 25.2 N and 72,1 W when NHC made its last update. Since that time shear has weakened around Danny and latest satellite appearances suggest that the C.O.C is not as exposed and convection is starting to wrap around its center.

The intensification process should start to increase slightly due to warmer waters that are in DANNYS path. These warm waters continue to ride up the eastern seaboard.

So, as DANNY travels to the WNW over the next 24 + hours he will be travelling over waters conducive to strengthening and light wind shear conducive to strengthening. 
Looking at the latest guidance..the first thing I have done is completely discarded the 18 Z GFS run. The GFS has not had a proper handle on this tropical cyclone since its beginning. The second thing I noticed is a semi 50/50 low..Blocking high pressure and a stronger ridge.Discussing  this on the ECM first...The ULL or low pressure that is over the Great Lakes will help to keep DANNY closer to the coast and could even partially phase with DANNY as he rides up the eastern sea board. You can see the blocking high pressures and you can see the stronger ridge this go around compared to Hurricane Bill.

Now lets look at the 12 Z GFS.Essentially on the GFS you are looking at the same set up. Similar placement of the ULL or low pressure, blocking high pressure and the semi 50/50 low. This is WHY i feel the GFS is to far east in its placement because the synoptic features are essentially the same as the ECM which is further to the west. 
As DANNY moves up along the eastern seaboard.. there is an ULL that should become instrumental in keeping Danny along the coast as well, located over the SE. DANNY & this ULL look to partially phase which would make DANNY become a HYBRID Tropical Cyclone. This is important because it means that he will not have complete tropical characteristics as he gains in Latitude. A hybrid system can continue to intensify as it moves N and with the warm waters in place ..I think that is exactly what we see happen. 
At this point and time I am thinking that DANNY could potentially make CATEGORY 1 status and maintain this intensity as it rides up the eastern seaboard and approaches SNE. 
So with all the above..my track is laid out above and is a combination of the NAM/GGEM/ECM