Pattern Update for the first week of September 2009

NAO expected to remain positive over the next week before heading back towards neutral by the end of the period.

PNA is expected to be positive over the next 4 days before once again going back to neutral.

EPO is expected to be neutral pretty much through out the period...

So what this tells me is that over the next 3-4 days that the east coast and the northeast is going to be under the influence of troughing. There after the PNA drops to neutral and this indicates that the troughing will lift out of the area. This troughing may not lift completely out of the area but it should flatten out..Meanwhile ridging should build in from the east and push towards the west. 
Now, majority of times ridging this time of the year will not result in the same type of warmth and humidity that the previous warm episode had. However..i think this ridging will be strong enough to influence the weather and its temperatures along the east coast. 
So this is what I am expecting over the next seven days temperature wise..
Now thru about the next three days , pretty much all regions will be below normal but each day should see an increase in temps slowly..Beyond three days..temperatures should average seasonal to slightly above for daytime highs across the eastern seaboard..slightly inland to seasonal to slightly below west of that region.

Aug 31st Daily Weather Discussion

Aug 31st Daily Weather Discussion 

A hint of fall in the air! 

You are going to feel like we are in the latter part of september or early october depending on where you reside. Its going to be sunny and pleasant but overall temperatures are going to be quite cool. There is a chance of some showers though to the south of Pa..otherwise one can expect mostly sunny but cool conditions. Just how cool are we talking?

Daytime high temperatures will be in the 60-70 range from NNE into most of the state of NY. Along SNE south and east the low to mid 70s. Western Pa lower 60s to lower 70s and even south of PA in the 60s to 70s! Overall some very cool weather on tap across the region! How long will it last? Stay tuned to find out!

August 30th day time high at KABE was 78 degrees

Early Morning Thoughts On Invest 94 L Aug 31st 2009

While invest 94 L remains disorganized..the one thing that I do notice in the picture above is the size of this system. Erika is of course flanked with 20-30 knots of shear on her northwest side. This shear is important as this shear is preventing invest 94 L from developing further at this point and time. There is another reason that this is important and that is that the shear keeps this a weaker system. The shear and steering currents are above..

Now..we have seen with Danny what shear can do to a tropical wave. We seen that shear keep danny a weaker system and that allowed danny to be steered by the lower level steering currents. Danny started off further to the south then Bill...however INVEST 94 L is even more south then what Danny was. Current coordinates as of 2 Am were 13.8 N and 51.5 west. All this above is important as you read on and as i will explain.
The coordinates take me to the models. First lets talk about the GFS. Just yesterdays 00z run (8/30) this was showing invest 94 L splitting off into two pieces. Furthermore it was showing invest 94 L taking approximately 48 hours to get to the point where invest 48 is currently sitting in just a mere 24 hours. I mentioned last night how the 00z GFS was wrong and , indeed it was wrong. The GFDL does not develop invest 94 L. There are two reasons that i can think of pertaining to the model as to why this is the case. Reason #1 is there is not yet a closed defined circulation center. This means that this model will not have a correct handle on the scenario. Reason #2 is because it is run off the GFS dynamics. So that already puts a red flag up when it comes to this model. However..the same thing can be applied to the HWRF...no closed circulation center..not going to have a correct handle on the invest.
The GGEM 00z is notoriously known for developing tropical cyclones to soon. Even though they have attempted to fix this model..its pretty obvious that this is still occurring. So the GGEM develops invest 94 L and because of its development starts to recurve to the NE around 144 hours. 
Now this brings me to the ECM. The ECM is essentially the superior model. However, even the ECM with being the superior model tends to not handle weaker tropical cyclones very well. If the system is stronger and the ECM shows it coming up the east coast..you can pretty much take it to the bank that its going to verify. So the 12 Z ECM essentially took this system into the Carribean..and essentially the carribean and dry air and shear caused the invest to dissipate. However..the one thing that the ECM is good at is pattern developing and the ensembles of the ECM have been consistently developing a huge ridge over the atlantic ocean into the eastern seaboard...
So whats going to happen with INVEST 94 L? Basically because invest 94 L is a weak system she should continue to head off to the WNW at around 15 mph caught up in that lower level steering flow. Invest 94 L should make it quite close to the islands before starting to turn to the NW..just barely making it to the north of the islands without actually landfalling there. And this NW movement should continue do the weakness in the ridge.
This should be about 48-60 hours from now. However, once invest 94 L gets north of the islands, the ecm ensembles show the ridge pressing back to the west over top of Invest 94 L..So at or around 72-96 hrs invest 94 L should start to move back to either west northwest or take a westerly track. So at this point and time..I think anywhere from Florida to the Southeast coast should be monitoring invest 94 L.
I am not going to cover intensity on this particular update as there is alot of shear and dry air that has to be contended with as invest 94 L heads west towards the islands. This brings me to my second scenario..the second scenario was last nights third scenario and that is there is a possibility that invest 94 L does not develop any further. If that is the case then invest 94 L will continue to be subjected to the lower level steering winds and head into the Carribean. With the amount of dry air in place there and sinking air chances are that invest 94 L would indeed dissipate. However, even if she becomes a carribean cruiser and finds a way to survive those conditions then along the GOM would have to become on guard for any potential impacts.
Stay tuned for the next update...

8/30/09 Updated Track For Invest 94 L

August 30th Weather Discussion

August 30th Weather Discussion

Needed a Break From The Heat? It has arrived!

August 26th high at KABE was 84 
August 27th High at KABE was 71
August 28th High at KABE was 68
August 29th High at KABE was 78 
Well, if you are like me I am sure that the cooler weather the past three days has actually felt pretty nice. Today temperatures are going to be on the rebound across parts of the region but it will still feel pleasant temperature wise. SNE and points south and east temperatures will be in the lower 80s. Across the state of maine upper 60s to lower 70s and across the rest of the region temperatures will be mainly in the 70s with some locations reaching 80 degrees. The exceptions to this will be across western Pa and parts of western NY where temperatures will not get out of the 60s. To the south of PA on the western side in the 70s while the eastern side will be in the 80s with some locations to near 90.
As far as the weather is concerned most areas should be under partly to mostly sunny skies but there is a slight chance for some afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms!

September 2009 Outlook

Invest 94 L Tracking Chart Over The Next 7 Days

Early Morning Thoughts On Danny Aug 29, 2009

There really has not been an east trend on any of the models at all in the last 24 hours. I believe that NHC is relying more on the hurricane models then they are the global models. However, with Danny being a hybrid system ..the hurricane models are not the best to use in my opinion. If one were to look at the global models they all take this over eastern LI and into the Cape area. Some are slightly west of the CAPE like tonights RGEM for example. They keep shifting the track to the east because of the dynamical models.

Now, when looking at the steering currents, they argue for a more Northerly direction then easterly direction. If one were to look at the coordinates that have been given over the last couple updates the northerly motion is greater then the easterly motion. I see no reason for this to change.

Now, looking at the upper air data..I see over the great lakes a neutral tilted trough..however where Danny is we have a negatively tilted trough. A semi 50/50 low..Ridging across the atlantic that Danny should continue to move up the western side of. A negatively tilted trough should help danny to ride basically parallel to the coast. I think when the 2 AM update comes out that Danny will still be either maintaining his strength or perhaps intensified some. Now, NHC has DANNY moving NNE for the next 24 hours from 11 PM tonight..so essentially that takes us to 11 PM Saturday evening (Sunday 0300) with an increase in forward speed. With Danny gaining more latitude North then longitude to the east..I feel no reason to change my forecast track.

8/28/09 Early Morning Danny Thoughts

Currently the time is 4:45 AM...Danny has been and continues to be quite a perplexing storm to forecast. Everytime that Danny tries to get organized and take a step forward..He ends up taking a step backwards due to the shear that he has been experiencing. Weakening that started roughly between 5 PM and 8 PM on the 27th..has persisted.

Looking at 00z guidance and even the early 06 Z guidance..(the NAM) ..we have the GGEM/GFS/RGEM/HWRF/ECM/NOGAPS and to some extent the NAM..either stayed consistent or have gone to the left by a little bit.  Matter of fact the ECM is basically on top of LI and then rides into SNE as well as the GFS. So, in this sense I totally disagree with NHC and there statement as of 5 AM that the models keep the center away from the East Coast. The center on practically all the models rides parallel to the east coast..basically hugging the coast. 

So whats going on with Danny? We have new convection building..however..we have seen this happen several times and Danny has not been able to sustain himself. With the earlier discussion I had forecasted that weakening was likely to occur..and that any intensification would wait till friday morning thru saturday morning, if Danny is going to survive..This is the time frame that he has to work with.

Tracking? Tracking with Danny appears to be the easier of the two areas that need to be covered. Current thinking is that Danny should pass along side Cape Hatteras..parallel to the coast. Danny should continue to move to the NNW or NW as he feels the "drawing" of the disturbance over the SE Coast, the trough that was split and left behind from Hurricane Bill. In about 12 to 24 hours Danny should start moving to the North. Current thinking is that he should pass about 50-100 miles off the coast of Southern New Jersey...once he reaches this latitude Danny should begin to move on a more NNE to NE basis. 

The reasons why I still think this should occur is because obviously Danny is a weak system. This makes Danny more likely to follow the lower level steering currents. Strong ridging...blocking high pressures..and a weaker storm should result in the track above.

The next fly in the ointment. The trough over the Great Lakes...with Danny being weaker...there is a good potential that the trough and the ULL over the Great Lakes will be stronger then Danny and that the two could essentially phase..and because the strength of the ULL and trough would be stronger..this could allow Danny to become completely absorbed into the trough with the advancing cold front. This would result in a major rainfall event..however..not so much in the way of winds. At that point Dannys tropical characteristics would have dissipated completely. 

Scenario #2 is that Danny continues to strengthen in the next 12-24 hours and remains a tropical storm and then maintains that intensity and perhaps intensifies a little more as he parallels the eastern seaboard due to becoming a Hybrid system. Hybrid systems are not completely tropical.. consider them like a half breed storm. 

Scenario # 3 is that the trough is progressive enough, and Danny is weak enough, that the trough just pushes Danny completely out to sea.

Scenario #4 is Danny just completely dissipates. 

At this present time, I am currently thinking that scenario # 1 happens. This would be that Danny rides up the coast, parallel to the coast..as a weaker system.. and gets absorbed into the Great Lakes trough and ULL. 

The main threat to the SNE area and the Mid Atlantic will be heavy rainfall. The heavy rainfall will set up to the west of the center and with interaction with the trough and the advancing cold front some areas could receive between 3-6 inches of rain. 

As far as intensity..I am currently expecting Danny to remain a Tropical Storm. The potential for a category 1 hurricane no longer exists. Despite the above information, Danny will still cause some dangerous rip currents and strong waves and potential beach erosion. 

Stay tuned for more updates. I will update as necessary and when needed. If i see anything that would change..or anything that would dictate a change in my current thoughts you can read it here on my blog or accu weather forums.

Midday Thoughts On Tropical Storm Danny

Danny has been moving on a westerly to northwesterly direction and has seemed to slow down his forward momentum. It almost appears as if Danny is stalling. Danny has not become very well organized overnight and I have been talking about a weaker DANNY ultimately would allow a further to the west direction in movement. The slowing down to also potentially stalling also will ultimately have an effect on timing issues. NHC and most of the current guidance has this around CAPE COD about 48 hours from now. At this point and time I do not see that happening unless a fire is sparked underneath Danny to start accelerating him.

As you can see above the COC is exposed and DANNY has virtually stalled. Looking at the latest guidance from the global models to the dynamical models they have either stayed the same, as in the GGEM,ECM,RGEM or they have come further to the west..such as the GFS,NAM,HWRF,GFDL,NOGAPS,UKMET. This is not really all surprising because the COC is further to the west then anticipated by majority of the guidance yesterday.

Currently DANNYS C.O.C is in approximately 5-10 knots of shear when looking at the latest image. Also Danny is sitting over some pretty warm waters, as i posted these images in the last update. Being a weaker storm at this present time, makes Danny more subject to the LL steering currents.

This is currently allowing Danny to obtain his very slow drift of West Northwest and what also appears to at times be a SW wobble. All this is important as DANNY is still a weak system. 
I also think that the models still do not have a proper handling on this system from the Global models to the Hurricane models. This is due to the fact that the system is so disorganized. However, one thing is becoming more and more clear..If the current direction of movement does not take place this will make the Southeast more succeptible to a landfall from DANNY.
The reason why the GFS has shifted west. Blocking and ridging is stronger on the GFS. Also the interaction with the ULL across the Great Lakes. Showing a Hybrid storm (see above images)

The stronger the ULL is and the deeper the trough is the more pull that is going to be emphasized onto Danny. The stronger the ridge and the stronger the blocking the less chance for Danny to move in a track akin to Hurricane Bill. 
Now where is Danny going? That is the important question at this time. It appears as if Danny is stalling at this present time. However..when looking at the satellite and one looks to the west over the SE, one sees an ULL in that vicinity. The due motion with that is due North. So at some point and time over the next 12-24 hours Danny should begin to move off to the North. Now movement of DANNY is critical as to whether or not DANNY is developing a new C.O.C. There has been talks about this occurring for at least the last 12 hours but yet it has not occurred..instead we have a broad area of circulation. If the C.O.C relocates further to the east then the eastern track taking it 100-200 miles off the coast and very close to CAPE COD will end up verifying.However, if the C.O.C stays where it currently is located..or continues to drift westwards then the southeast is more in danger..particulary around CAPE HATTERAS once DANNY starts to move northwards. At this point and time I am leaning more towards the CAPE HATTERAS scenario and the C.O.C not relocating further to the east. IF this occurs then, from HATTERAS, TROPICAL STORM DANNY will continue to move north paralleling the eastern seaboard and then SNE will have to be on the lookout for potential impact. 
Intensity? Intensity has been hard to forecast with DANNY. Despite not having its act together DANNY has been since yesterday slightly intensifying. 50 MPH winds to 60 MPH winds. I think its possible that DANNY could weaken slightly over the next couple hours because of stalling. However..once Danny starts to move towards the North intensification due to warm waters, light shear should occur. So my best guess at intensification should start tomorrow morning and have about 24 hours to 36 hours to intensify. Still leaning on this being a hybrid system which means it should continue to intensify further north..if not intensify at least maintain its status..due to becoming a hybrid system. Current thinking is a strong tropical storm to a CAT 1 hurricane...
So with all the above in mind..I have made absolutely no changes to my track...

August 26th Tropical Storm Danny Early Evening Thoughts!

Updated Early evening thoughts on Tropical Storm Danny. Danny has made the upgrade from INVEST 92 L to tropical storm. Since that time Danny has been struggling to get organized. C.O.C was located at 25.2 N and 72,1 W when NHC made its last update. Since that time shear has weakened around Danny and latest satellite appearances suggest that the C.O.C is not as exposed and convection is starting to wrap around its center.

The intensification process should start to increase slightly due to warmer waters that are in DANNYS path. These warm waters continue to ride up the eastern seaboard.

So, as DANNY travels to the WNW over the next 24 + hours he will be travelling over waters conducive to strengthening and light wind shear conducive to strengthening. 
Looking at the latest guidance..the first thing I have done is completely discarded the 18 Z GFS run. The GFS has not had a proper handle on this tropical cyclone since its beginning. The second thing I noticed is a semi 50/50 low..Blocking high pressure and a stronger ridge.Discussing  this on the ECM first...The ULL or low pressure that is over the Great Lakes will help to keep DANNY closer to the coast and could even partially phase with DANNY as he rides up the eastern sea board. You can see the blocking high pressures and you can see the stronger ridge this go around compared to Hurricane Bill.

Now lets look at the 12 Z GFS.Essentially on the GFS you are looking at the same set up. Similar placement of the ULL or low pressure, blocking high pressure and the semi 50/50 low. This is WHY i feel the GFS is to far east in its placement because the synoptic features are essentially the same as the ECM which is further to the west. 
As DANNY moves up along the eastern seaboard.. there is an ULL that should become instrumental in keeping Danny along the coast as well, located over the SE. DANNY & this ULL look to partially phase which would make DANNY become a HYBRID Tropical Cyclone. This is important because it means that he will not have complete tropical characteristics as he gains in Latitude. A hybrid system can continue to intensify as it moves N and with the warm waters in place ..I think that is exactly what we see happen. 
At this point and time I am thinking that DANNY could potentially make CATEGORY 1 status and maintain this intensity as it rides up the eastern seaboard and approaches SNE. 
So with all the above..my track is laid out above and is a combination of the NAM/GGEM/ECM

August 26th Weather Discussion

August 26th Weather Discussion
All eyes off the SE Atlantic Coast over the next 100 hours
August 25th high temperature was 84 degrees @ KABE

Today is going to be another beautiful summer day but with an increase in temperatures along the SNE coast points south and east. Weather conditions should be mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms from North Central Pa & northwards. Majority of the day though should be rain free across the area. 

Temperatures look to be in the 85-95 range from SNE points south and east. Interior regions 70-80, perhaps a few lower 80s in some locations. 

Enjoy these days as the weather will soon be going downhill and quite rapidly... 

Early Morning Thoughts on Invest 92 L..Aug 26th

The two images above one was created on the 24th , the other was just created about an hour ago now on the 26th. I tried to duplicate the exact same cone but did not work without the lat-longitude. Thank you to carlos for the image  

Thoughts as of early this morning on the 26th...

First I think its important that we have quite the model consistency from the UKMET/GGEM/ECM/NOGAPS/18ZDGEX which i normally would not reference but the HPC referenced them today! Came off as quite a shock...

I have always all along felt that the westward inland track over land was a little too far west as you can tell by the above images. The track at this point and time i expect to verify is very close to Hurricane Belle that i posted two days ago. That would be the analog that i would use.
The area is becoming influenced less by shear which is always a good sign for a system to strengthen. As Invest 92 continues to the WNW the shear should become minimal and I expect to see a Tropical Cyclone develop within the next 12-24 hours.
As INVEST 92 L (soon to be DANNY) makes his way slowly up the eastern seaboard..a deep trough will be dropping down into the Great lakes region . This will cause heights to rise along the atlantic coastal waters which will then help to steer INVEST 92 L up the eastern seaboard. INVEST 92 L will not be able to make an escape out to sea due to the blocking high pressures in the Northern Atlantic. 
Now a potential fly in the ointment will be the timing of this trough..If it is too progressive this is going to help INVEST 92 to head off more to the NE and out to sea. If the trough is slower it will pretty much have the effect listed above this paragraph. 
As far as intensity.. I do not believe that global models should be used for the intensity of Tropical cyclones, and unfortunately the Hurricane models are not quite where they should be because there is no C.O.C develop yet. 
The reason this storm will take a closer path to the East coast then HURRICANE BILL did is due to the stronger ridge leaving less room to squiggle and an upper level low over the SE that will help to keep INVEST 92 closer to the coast. 
Intensity wise I am not 100% confident on but early preliminary thinking is a strong Tropical Storm or a Moderate Category 1. Once this tropical wave makes it over the GULF stream I think it will go into RI and it has some very warm waters to its north along its way.
I also think its possible that INVEST 92 may go from a INVEST to a TROPICAL STORM ..if those winds that were found by recon remain in place once the C.O.C develops. 
This has the potential to bring alot of rain and flooding as well as more beach erosion..

Stay tuned for further updates. Next update tomorrow after 12 Z

August 25th Weather Discussion

August 25th Weather Discussion
Warmer air temporarily making a comeback-but it won't last!
August 24th high temperature at KABE was 81 degrees
Not much to say today about the weather across the region other then one can expect to find mostly sunny conditions and dry weather. Folks they do not get much better then this..Daytime high temperatures across the region will be from the low 70s to low 80s across the state of Maine. Elsewhere across the NE temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s. To the south of Pa temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s to the lower 90s. So a hot day on tap to the south and some of that air will make its way northwards for wednesday but thats the discussion involving later tonight. Until then enjoy the weather !

Invest 92 Thoughts as of August 24,2009

Hurricane Bill is out of the picture but not before producing the worst flooding since 1985 in Long Island and not before taking the lives of two individuals in the state of Maine. R.W.S forecasters warned in advance that this hurricane had the potential to produce dangerous rip currents and flooding from those rip currents as well as the Pre that was setting up! Also R.W.S forecasted Bill to travel within 100-200 miles off the coast of CAPE COD and that is exactly what happened.

Now R.W.S forecasters turn there attention to the next wave around 17 N and 58 W.  This wave is currently under going shear between 20-30 knots on its southern side and even higher shear in the north. Development of this system will be slow to occur. INVEST 92 L should continue to move to the WNW for the next several days as it rounds the base of a subtropical ridge with the  high pressure center just to the SE of bermuda.  In about 72 hours the ridge will weaken somewhat and this will allow INVEST 92 L to start to turn to the NW. INVEST 92 L should become a depression in the next 24-48 hrs.

What makes this different from Hurricane Bill? After all, Bill did the same thing with riding along the base of the subtropical ridge? The difference this time around will be the more southern latitude of the system before it starts to turn to the NW. Subtropical ridge will be stronger which will allow less wiggle room for INVEST 92 L to work with. 

As INVEST 92 L makes his way slowly up the eastern seaboard..a deep trough will be dropping down into the Great lakes region . This will cause heights to rise along the atlantic coastal waters which will then help to steer INVEST 92 L up the eastern seaboard. INVEST 92 L will not be able to make an escape out to sea due to the blocking high pressures in the Northern Atlantic.

At this point and time R.W.S forecasters will not be forecasting intensity as its too early in the forecasting period to get a proper handle on that scenario..However, the potential is there to be a threat to the east coast. If this develops into a Depression as noted above.. I will then become very confident on the outcome above. This is an early preliminary look at current thinking on INVEST 92 and the development into a tropical cyclone. 

Analog used is Hurricane Belle in 1976. Upper air pattern was quite similar with a deep trough with its axis near the great lakes and a strong subtropical ridge. 

Stay tuned for further updates to see if the potential becomes reality. 

Aug 24th Daily Discussion...
Bill is Gone..Something Else a Brewing?
August 23rd high temp at KABE was 84 degrees..
Today is going to be a mainly fine summer day across the region with mostly sunny skies. There may be a chance of isolated showers or thundershowers from NY State and north. Otherwise a sunny day is on tap. Temperatures a bit cool across maine with upper 60s to upper 70s. SNE coast and south and east into SE PA ..low to mid 80s. Across the rest of the NE 70-80. South of PA .. Mid to Upper 80s.

August 23rd Daily Weather Discussion
Hurricane Bill Close To The Region
Aug 22nd High temperature @ KABE was 82 degrees..Today will continue to be another muggy, tropical type day along the east coast, right along the coast. Dewpoints are 70-75 and hurricane Bill is starting to pull away from the area. However, Hurricane Bill was strong enough that he kept the cold front at bay, to the point where instead of progressing thru the region it stalled, and became responsible for the very heavy rains yesterday that fell across parts of the region. Today that cold front will move thru and with Bill in the vicinity,though pulling away, and the cold front approaching we will keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region. However, once again I believe that in between any rainy times, there will be times of clouds and sun.Day time high temps along the coast of SNE and south and east will be in the lower to mid 80s. The rest of the NE temps will be in the 70-80 range. South of PA will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Pattern Update for the week of the 23rd to the end of the month

Pattern Update for the week of the 23rd to the end of the month.

Looking at the latest teleconnections...NAO is positive and is expected to go to around neutral..PNA is expected to be around neutral thru the period with fluctuations on either side of the line..EPO is positive and looks to stay positive some time before falling to neutral...So what does this tell me. Well currently we have a trough over the area.. This trough should begin to lift out of the area on Monday...and we should go to more of a zonal flow for tuesday thru thursday.One potential fly in the oinment will be a trough in SE Canada that looks to amplify enough to effect NY State and Northwards starting thursday..Question is does this trough hang around thru the northeast? I think it will hang around but not quite the amplification as being modeled at this time. We do not have a -EPO or a -NAO..so the amplification of the trough should be more flat in nature. Now, this was the one area of the discussion last time that burned me. However..teleconnection wise a amplified trough does not make sense. Also, while that is going on we are still going to have the CAR..which looks like it once again might want to become a WAR...So overall temperatures the next week will be broken down like follows.. seasonal to slightly above seasonal over SNE and points south and east thru about thursday..North of that area will be seasonal to below normal with the exception of tuesday where that area could be seasonal to slightly above. Come thursday forward we are going to go seasonal to slightly below across the region..with a moderating trend as we get closer to September 1st!

August 22nd Daily Weather Discussion

August 22nd Daily Weather Discussion
Coming Up The Coast!

August 21st High temperature at KABE was 88 degrees

There is a cold front that is basically stalled across the region. This cold front is going to keep the chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region. With Bill coming up the coast..its going to set a tropical fetch of moisture across the region. Flash flood watches have been issued across parts of the region. I think we have times of clouds and sun though so the whole day will not be a washout...

Temperatures look to be generally 70-80 across the state of Maine..and low to mid 80s thru out the rest of the region. 70-80 degrees across western PA and into SW NY state...

Final Thoughts On Hurricane Bill Aug 21 2009

Final thoughts and final map. Not neccessarily charts and images Not at one time did I ever say there was going to be a landfall in the USA. I did stress that the East Coast, in the beginning from Fl to Maine should monitor Hurricane Bill. Then that emphasis shifted from the Carolinas to Maine...as far as USA residents were concerned. The reason was simply due to Hurricane Bill being large in size and riding up along the east coast and not 100% convinced on the sharp curve to the NE. 
As far as models are concerned with the tracking of Bill? Not going to verify on the track at this point and time because he is still churning along the eastern seaboard but, this forecaster puts the ECM at the bottom of the list because it had it tracking to the east of bermuda up until under 84 hours out. That model performed horrible in my opinion.

Latest guidance has locked in on its track. Keeping it moving NNW and then due N along the coast. In all honesty, I am still not 100% confident that areas like CAPE COD are going to be completely out of the woods. So i will continue to monitor and track it until i see that NE turn commence. 

Looking at the latest currents..images above

You can see that he is riding up along the western side of the eastern ridge. However, when you look, at the other levels..also above..

You can see the eastern ridge flexing its muscles towards the west. I think that this could give Bill a bit of a WNW push before resuming back to the north once again. Hence the far left black line and the track somewhat closer to the coast. The above is the reasoning why i am not 100% confident on the area of CAPE COD being out of the woods yet. I do not think that reasoning is unvalid at this point and time. 
Heres a look at Hurricane Bill on the latest Satellite above from the Caribbean, Atlantic and Wunderground view.

With all that in mind the final track and including landfall is above.

 

August 21st Weather Discussion

August 21st Weather Discussion
Tropical Air Mass In Place
Tropical air mass in place today! If its any indication at nearly 4 AM as I am writing this on the 21st it is 80 degrees with a DP of 73... A cold front and unusually strong trough for this time of the year are advancing toward the area. At the same time..powerful ridging is off the east coast and reaching its influence westwards...All this means that we are going to end up with an explosive day of weather. Severe thunderstorms likely across the region. There will be times of sun and clouds in between any severe action. Flash flood warnings will be needed today across the region with any areas that get these severe storms.Temperatures along the coast from SNE south and east to south of PA in the range of 85-95 with very high dewpoints! Stuck in the muck! Across Maine temperatures will be 70-80 and the rest of the region interior wise in the lower to mid 80s. Exception to this will be western PA and parts of SW NY where temps will be in the 70-80 range! Keep an eye to the sky today ..It could become quite nasty!High temperature at KABE was 86 degrees on Aug 20th

Severe Weather Aug 21st 2009

An unusually strong trough is approaching the region over the next 24-36 hours. A powerful cold front is approaching the area. this cold front currently is cutting Michigan in half and it is running South Southeast of there. Out ahead of this cold front has been a very hot and humid air mass...a very tropical air mass. This is due to strong high pressure off the east coast and Hurricane Bill moving up the eastern seaboard. To give you an example of how warm it is..3 AM and 80 degrees ..DP 73.. The cold front itself with not cross the region though until Sunday...TRIGGERSTropical Air Mass CAPE 1000-3000Powerful Trough Powerful Cold front Lift Index -2-6 depending on locationBulk Shear 0-6 KM between 30 & 40 knots...
With such a tropical air mass in place .. I am expecting explosive development to occur. The approach of a much cooler air mass in combination with a tropical air mass in place is the recipe for explosive development. I am expecting to see numerous tornado warnings and excessive winds of 60-70 mph.

Aug 20th Afternoon Update on Hurricane Bill

There is an ULL out in front of BILL off to his WNW... from watching satellite loops & using the NHC coordinates, Hurricane Bill has yet to make a true complete turn to the NW....he appears to be still heading WNW...

Look at the steering levels that are up above. To see what is happening i believe its prudent to look at some other levels.. 

This is showing the ridge back building on top of Hurricane Bill. The above image is from 1 hour ago. 

You can see that it is still building on top of Bill. I believe this is what is being responsible for Bill still travelling on a WNW basis. However, I believe its only partially responsible. I also feel that the ULL that is WNW of Bill is also having a "pulling or tugging" effect on Bill.
We know that Bill was a Hurricane 4 and has since weakened to a category 3. We also know that he has been encountering shear and that is the cause of the weakness. So in my opinion that makes Bill more acceptable to his surroundings. 
I am somewhat concerned about this ULL and how far WNW it will keep tugging on Bill in combination with the ridge building on top of him. In the back of my mind I am still thinking about Anna and how Anna basically went thru the same current scenario and kept on the WNW pathway..however weakened.
Hurricane Bill is stronger and is at a higher latitude then ANNA obviously but has also started more south of ANNA. ANNA made it to about 68 west on that WNW basis and now it appears as if BILL has a good shot at making it beyond 68 W...
The question in my mind that is not answered is ..how confident are we that the models are picking up on everything correctly? 
I mean, the models now 72-78 hrs out are basically still shifting in the words of NHC "slightly west" .This causes them to shift there track accordingly the same way. Each update that has been essentially happening. So if they are not confident and if they keep delaying this true NW and then N direction..there is no way for me to be confident at this point with seeing everything I am seeing occurring. 
So with that in mind ...I have created a preliminary map. That preliminary map is going to have two tracks. The first track with the yellow centered line is the track that BILL would take if he keeps moving in the direction that he is. Remember i am not sold on this NOT happening in light of all the above. The second track is based on getting to around 70 W and 38 N before any turn to the North can occur..

Aug 20th Update On Hurricane Bill

I think this is a good time to put my latest thoughts out there. A few things I am looking at is the size of hurricane bill. This is a water vapor loop of him above.

Latest guidance tonight has basically remained status quo thru 00z runs. The GFS over three of its last runs since 06 Z run yesterday, has essentially the way it seems locked onto a track. The GGEM which has been consistent has not changed its course. ECM, is a little more difficult cause you can not see the in between hours but it looks like it would be slightly west . The NOGAPS, which ironically has been leading the way, has remained steady as a ship. The models thru out the day trended slightly west until 00z. This is pretty much a non debatable issue as NHC has stated this in there forecast advisories.
Movement? Which way is Bill moving and which way will he continue to move? This is my next focus area.
NHC coordinates for wednesday the 19th of Aug


03 GMT 08/19/09 17.2N 53.4W 125 952 Category 3 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/19/09 18.0N 54.9W 135 948 Category 4 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/19/09 18.7N 56.3W 135 950 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/19/09 19.8N 57.6W 135 947 Category 4 Hurricane
If my calculations are correct ..Hurricane Bill has moved 1.16 degrees to the North and 4.2 degrees to the west. I have to agree with Jordan when he says that NHC has jumped the gun on movement because that clearly shows more of a west movement with a northerly component then the opposite.
Now if you look at the steering currents that would be the next level for Bill..you can see what is actually happening..
The ridge is actually backbuilding on top of him. You can also see this a little bit in the current steering currents for 0300 Z. These steering currents and the back building of the ridge on top of him I believe are responsible for the more westerly component lasting longer as it has so far.
Each run of the guidance seems to be suggesting that the troughing is slowing down..its not progressing to the east as quick as was being modeled originally. Instead, the trough is taking on a neutral tilt and wanting ti split off..allowing the cold front to possibly have some interaction on Hurricane Bill.

So where are we going? I think Hurricane Bill will continue on his WNW track and will start to gradually turn to a more clear NW direction by about 70 W. I believe from there he will continue to move on a NNW direction and travel up along the eastern seaboard. At this point and time I do not want to forecast a track by how many miles off the coast. Now for the recurve..I am thinking Bill will start to recurve around 38 N and then proceed to the NE from there.

Keeping in mind the size of Hurricane Bill...and his swath of winds.. above.

We potentially could be looking at tropical storm force winds...across extreme southern New England up into extreme eastern Maine.